IN Brief:
- Worldwide air cargo tonnage increased about 5% year on year in August.
- Hong Kong–Europe volumes fell 30% as the EU's new low-value import duty altered e-commerce economics.
- China/Hong Kong–Europe spot rates have fallen sharply since early summer while the wider global air cargo market remains in growth.
WorldACD recorded a 5% year-on-year increase in global air cargo tonnage in August, while traffic from Hong Kong to Europe fell sharply as European Union rules changed the economics of low-value e-commerce imports.
Hong Kong–Europe tonnage was 30% below August 2025 and 24% below its June level, immediately before the EU removed the customs-duty exemption for low-value imports. Volumes were also around 7% lower than in July, although weekly data suggests the decline may be levelling out: week 35 traffic rose 3% from the previous week and 6% from the low recorded in week 33.
Mainland China has been less exposed because its Europe-bound airfreight mix is less dependent on e-commerce. China–Europe tonnage in August was down 5% year on year, improving from an 8% decline in July, while combined China and Hong Kong volumes to Europe remained 14% below the previous year in both July and August.
Pricing has adjusted at the same time. Average China/Hong Kong–Europe spot rates fell from about US$5.22 per kg in May and June to US$4.34 in August, a reduction of roughly 17%. Their year-on-year premium narrowed from 32% in May to 11% in August.
From 1 July, the EU replaced the customs-duty exemption on distance-sales consignments valued at up to €150 with a temporary €3 duty per item. The measure is due to apply until 1 July 2028, when normal customs duties will take over, while product identifiers become mandatory for affected low-value imports from 1 November 2026.
July data had already shown weaker China and Hong Kong traffic into Europe, but the August figures provide the first full subsequent month of evidence. The decline is concentrated in a particular traffic segment rather than reflecting a general contraction in airfreight demand.
WorldACD’s database, built from more than two million monthly transactions, showed every main origin region recording year-on-year tonnage growth of between 4% and 5% in August. Average worldwide rates were 22% above August 2025, while global spot rates averaged US$3.36 per kg, up 28% year on year despite easing slightly from July.
Worldwide capacity increased more slowly, rising 2% from a year earlier. During the final two weeks of August it was 1% above the preceding fortnight, with Asia-Pacific origin capacity up 2% on the same short-term comparison.
The result is an airfreight market in which global demand remains firm while individual lanes can move in a very different direction. Buyers of Hong Kong–Europe capacity now face softer demand and lower spot pricing than earlier in the year, while other Asia-Pacific lanes remain comparatively stronger.
IATA’s July figures support that broader picture. Global cargo tonne-kilometres increased 3.9% year on year, against a 1.7% rise in available capacity. Asia-Pacific airline demand grew 4.1%, European demand 4.4%, and the wider market remained in positive territory before WorldACD’s August data extended the trend.
The comparison with the United States also illustrates how specific the European correction has become. Combined China and Hong Kong volumes to the US were 13% higher year on year in August, with mainland China up 15% and Hong Kong up 9%. China/Hong Kong–US spot rates have eased from their June peak, but traffic has not followed Europe into the same decline.
Forwarders and shippers will now be watching whether Hong Kong–Europe traffic stabilises at a lower level or rebuilds as e-commerce sellers alter product mix, routing, consolidation, and fulfilment arrangements. A sustained reduction would affect aircraft allocation and contract negotiations on the lane even while the global market continues to grow.
For procurement teams, the divergence increases the value of route-level benchmarking. A global index showing growth can obscure substantial pricing and capacity changes on a specific origin-destination pair, especially when regulation alters one category of traffic more than the rest of the market. Contract discussions therefore need to separate structural demand from temporary seasonal pressure and from policy-driven shifts in e-commerce flows.
The August figures show the extent to which a customs change can move freight demand within weeks. Global air cargo remains larger than a year ago, but Europe’s treatment of low-value imports has already altered both volumes and pricing on one of Asia’s most closely watched e-commerce routes.
