IN Brief:
- Colliers data show fewer than 500,000 sq ft of speculative UK industrial and logistics completions in Q3 2026.
- Take-up of units exceeding 100,000 sq ft reached 6.7m sq ft in the quarter and 21.8m sq ft over the first nine months.
- The consultancy forecasts 7.3m sq ft of speculative completions in 2026, 45% below the five-year average, rather than a measured shortfall in all industrial space.
Colliers reports that fewer than 500,000 sq ft of speculative industrial and logistics space was completed in the UK during the third quarter of 2026, the lowest quarterly level in almost a decade. At the same time, take-up of units larger than 100,000 sq ft reached 6.7 million sq ft. The two figures measure different activities: completions add new buildings to the supply of premises, whereas take-up records space transacted by occupiers and can include existing buildings.
Colliers records 21.8 million sq ft of transactions for UK industrial and logistics units above 100,000 sq ft during the first nine months of 2026, including 6.7 million sq ft in Q3. Retail, e-commerce and fulfilment occupiers accounted for 78% of the year-to-date total, with the Midlands representing 63% of area taken. These are shares of recorded leasing activity within the selected size class, not proportions of all British warehousing or the quantity of freight handled. They cannot be compared directly with the amount of newly completed speculative space.
The consultancy’s October forecast puts 2026 speculative completions at 7.3 million sq ft, around 45% below the previous five-year average and the weakest annual output since 2018. Earlier mid-year estimates were lower, reflecting a forecast made at a different reporting point. A speculative unit is built before an occupier has committed to it, whereas a dedicated or pre-let project is developed against a specific requirement. Q3 completions of less than 500,000 sq ft are already delivered buildings; the full-year figure remains a forecast.
Available newly built space declined 10.3% over the preceding twelve months, according to the data attributed to Colliers, while second-hand availability increased 20%. The opposing movements change the composition of marketed stock rather than proving there is no warehouse space left. An older unit can meet conventional pallet storage needs but still require electrical upgrades, strengthened floors or larger dock areas before automated or temperature-controlled work can be introduced. The release does not enumerate the technical specification of each available property.
Large distribution operations may need specific clear heights, floor-loading capacity, dock levellers, trailer access and sufficient electrical capacity for material handling systems. A warehouse that has a comparable headline area can still be poorly suited to automated storage, temperature control or intensive vehicle movements. Occupiers can sometimes modify existing premises, but structural limitations and planning requirements may make a building more expensive or slower to adapt than a purpose-built unit. Colliers’ take-up and completion figures do not disclose these specifications for every transaction.
The concentration of leasing activity in the Midlands reflects the region’s role in national distribution networks. Central locations can be attractive for serving multiple population centres and industrial customers within defined transport windows. Yet a regional share of completed lettings does not prove that every Midlands market has the same vacancy rate or rents, and it does not quantify demand for any individual motorway junction. Site selection depends on transport access, labour, utilities and suitable building availability as well as the broad geography of transactions.
Retail, e-commerce and fulfilment operators accounted for 78% of take-up in the tracked large-unit market. That category measure describes who leased the space, not whether every item moving through those buildings is consumer merchandise. Third-party operators can serve both industrial and retail customers, and a lease may consolidate existing activities rather than create additional physical handling volume. The reported mix does not support a claim that manufacturing occupiers have abandoned the market or that the same proportion applies to smaller premises.
Colliers’ earlier analysis of the first half reported 14.8 million sq ft of take-up and a substantial Midlands share, demonstrating that concentration is not confined to one quarter. Nevertheless, a comparison between successive publications has to respect differences in scope and the dates on which forecasts were updated. A predicted annual level of 7.3 million sq ft is not automatically inconsistent with the exceptionally low Q3 speculative completion figure; timing of schemes can produce uneven quarterly delivery across a calendar year.
Occupiers unable to secure a newly completed speculative building may consider second-hand premises, refurbishment or a pre-let development. Each option creates a different sequence of work: existing stock may require floor, roof or power alterations, while a bespoke building needs planning, construction and utility connections before commissioning. Available space therefore has to be assessed against the height, racking, vehicle circulation and process requirements of its intended user. Published take-up and completion totals alone cannot establish the cost or delivery time for a particular site.
The Q3 figures show continued leasing of large logistics buildings alongside sharply reduced new speculative completions. Future quarters will indicate whether developers restart construction, how quickly available Grade A space is absorbed and whether older stock is adapted for more demanding operations. Colliers’ dataset supports a distinction between occupier activity and new supply, but does not measure a nationwide shortfall in freight capacity. Separate operational and property measures would be needed to show how these changes affect warehouse throughput, labour or nationwide freight capacity.
