IN Brief:
- US van and flatbed freight volumes are rising as capacity signals tighten.
- Driver recruitment and retention are becoming more difficult for large carriers as market leverage shifts.
- Tariff front-loading, produce season, construction demand, and enforcement activity are adding volatility to truckload planning.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data and recent freight market indicators point to a tightening driver market as van and flatbed volumes recover from a prolonged freight downturn.
Truck transportation employment rose in April, while market data shows van volumes above recent averages and flatbed demand increasing sharply compared with the prior period. As freight volumes strengthen and rejection rates rise, large carriers are facing renewed pressure to recruit and retain drivers while shippers look for more reliable coverage.
The shift follows the loose capacity conditions that defined much of the post-pandemic freight correction. During the downturn, carriers competed aggressively for freight, rates softened, and many operators struggled to cover operating costs. The current market is more uneven, with demand being shaped by tariff front-loading, construction and steel movement, produce season, enforcement activity, and fuel volatility.
Driver availability sits at the centre of that change. When freight volumes rise, drivers gain more employment options and carriers have to work harder to keep seated trucks productive. Large fleets can be exposed because their networks depend on consistent driver availability across many terminals, customers, and equipment types.
Smaller fleets and owner-operators may respond more quickly to stronger spot opportunities, particularly where contract rates lag real-time market conditions. That can leave larger carriers managing a difficult balance between protecting contract service, covering unplanned demand, and maintaining driver utilisation.
Van and flatbed markets are moving for different reasons. Dry van activity has been lifted by importers pulling inventory forward ahead of tariff changes, compressing future freight into the present. Flatbed demand is being supported by construction materials, steel movement, infrastructure activity, and reshoring-linked freight. Refrigerated freight is also entering a seasonally tighter period as produce volumes build.
The operational risk lies in treating every volume increase as durable recovery. Tariff-driven front-loading can create high load-board activity, rising spot rates, and stronger rejection rates, then fade once importers have moved the inventory they were trying to protect. Carriers chasing short-term spot gains can improve revenue per mile, but equipment can be left exposed if volumes soften quickly.
Shippers face the opposite risk. Assuming that loose capacity will remain available can lead to weak routing guide performance, higher spot exposure, and poorer service reliability during peak weeks. When rejection rates rise, carrier relationships become more valuable than marginal rate savings. Lead time, tender discipline, facility dwell, and appointment reliability all become part of capacity procurement.
The tightening driver market is also developing against a more expensive operating base. Fuel, insurance, maintenance, equipment financing, compliance, and wages have all moved against carriers in recent years. Even where demand improves, carriers may need higher rates simply to rebuild margins after a prolonged period of strain.
Cost, labour, and resilience pressures are now visible across several parts of logistics. Lower-emission ocean freight agreements, warehouse automation investments, and UK transport cost increases all point to the same underlying challenge: networks are being asked to deliver stronger performance while absorbing higher capital, labour, and operating costs. In road freight, that strain becomes visible fastest through tender acceptance, driver retention, and spot-market volatility.
The next phase of the US market will depend on whether stronger volumes continue after tariff-related front-loading passes. If industrial production, construction, and retail replenishment keep moving, carriers may regain sustained pricing power. If current activity is mostly pulled-forward demand, capacity could loosen again as inventories build. For now, driver availability is signalling a market that no longer offers effortless truckload coverage.
