US truck contract and spot rates diverge

U.S. Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics have recorded a widening gap between US dry van contract and spot pricing, with contract rates increasing through August while the transactional market retreated from its June level. Spot rates fell from $2.38 per mile in June to $2.35 in July and $2.17 in August, whereas contract pricing rose from $2.30 to $2.38 and then $2.39 across the same period, leaving committed freight at an approximately $0.22 per mile premium by the end of August.

The divergence reverses part of the compression seen earlier in 2026, when recovering spot rates had moved closer to contract pricing and reduced the cost advantage available to shippers buying outside longer-term agreements. A wider spread now gives procurement teams more incentive to test the spot market again, although the apparent saving becomes less straightforward once service certainty, lane conditions, and fuel are considered alongside the linehaul rate.

Fuel surcharges increased from an average $0.62 per mile in June to $0.70 in August, raising total transport expenditure even as spot linehaul prices softened. A shipper comparing only the base freight figure can therefore overstate the saving available from a cheaper spot movement, particularly where diesel-related surcharges are passed through separately and move on a different timetable from negotiated carrier pricing.

Contract freight carries a premium partly because the carrier is committing equipment and service against an expected volume profile rather than competing for an individual load after it enters the market. That commitment can have little value on a flexible lane with abundant capacity, but the calculation changes when a collection supports a fixed production schedule, a customer delivery window, or an inbound component flow where failure creates costs well beyond the freight invoice. A $0.22 rate gap is meaningful across a large transport budget, yet it can disappear quickly if a low-priced truck is unavailable when the shipment actually has to move.

Spot purchasing offers the opposite balance, allowing shippers to exploit spare capacity and respond to changing volumes without maintaining the same level of contractual commitment. The risk sits in timing, since the market can tighten by geography, equipment type, or day of the week even when national rate data remains soft, leaving a procurement team exposed precisely when an urgent load enters the marketplace. National averages consequently provide a useful pricing signal without describing whether a specific lane will have enough trucks at the required collection time.

The latest pricing data also sits alongside a freight market in which activity signals remain mixed rather than consistently strong or weak. US logistics activity strengthened sharply around temporary trailer demand in August, while other indicators have continued to show subdued conditions across parts of manufacturing and warehousing. Flexible trailer demand can rise around seasonal or network imbalances without producing a corresponding national shortage of tractors, drivers, or dry van capacity, which helps explain how pockets of operational pressure can coexist with softer spot pricing.

Carrier economics add another variable because weak spot rates and higher fuel costs place pressure on the operators most dependent on transactional freight. Larger fleets can spread equipment across contracted business and multiple markets, whereas smaller carriers with less predictable utilisation may find a lower linehaul rate increasingly difficult to absorb when fuel, insurance, maintenance, and driver costs remain elevated. Capacity can therefore contract even without a sudden surge in freight demand, leaving today’s favourable spot purchasing conditions vulnerable to deterioration if enough marginal equipment exits the market.

Shippers can reduce that exposure by separating freight according to operational importance rather than forcing the entire network into either contract or spot procurement. Predictable base volumes on critical lanes can remain with committed carriers, preserving capacity and service accountability, while variable or less time-sensitive freight is released into the transactional market when the price spread is attractive. The approach requires accurate forecasts and disciplined tendering, since carriers asked to reserve capacity against volumes that rarely materialise will eventually reprice the risk or deploy their equipment elsewhere.

Fuel further strengthens the case for measuring total cost rather than rate per mile in isolation. Better trailer utilisation, shipment consolidation, reduced empty running, tighter appointment management, and fewer failed collections can deliver savings even when the negotiated linehaul figure moves against the shipper, while a low spot rate can prove expensive if poor planning creates detention, rebooking, or premium recovery moves elsewhere in the network. Procurement decisions made from a rate table alone miss much of the cost created after a truck accepts the load.

The June-to-August movement therefore leaves US transport buyers with more room to exploit spot pricing than they had earlier in the year, but without a clean signal that the freight market has returned to persistent excess capacity. Contract rates are holding above spot, fuel surcharges have risen, and carrier economics remain exposed to relatively modest changes in utilisation, so the widening spread is likely to encourage more selective buying rather than a wholesale shift away from committed capacity.