IN Brief:
- Cathay Cargo carried 868,931 tonnes in the first half, up 8.5% year on year.
- Semiconductor, pharmaceutical, and time-definite traffic supported growth while Middle East disruption raised operating pressure.
- India and other manufacturing-led Asian markets are gaining importance as customs and geopolitical changes reshape established flows.
Cathay Cargo increased cargo tonnage by 8.5% year on year in the first half of 2026 as strong flows from the Chinese mainland, specialist freight, and time-critical inventory movements offset pressure elsewhere in the network.
The carrier moved 868,931 tonnes in the six months to the end of June. Available freight tonne kilometres increased 3.9%, while revenue freight tonne kilometres rose 4.9%, lifting cargo load factor by 0.5 percentage points to 59.2%.
June maintained the momentum. Cathay Cargo carried 144,773 tonnes during the month, 9.3% more than a year earlier, against a 1.3% increase in available freight tonne kilometres. Revenue freight tonne kilometres rose 4.6%, taking the monthly cargo load factor to 60.4%.
The growth has not been evenly distributed across commodities or markets. Cargo moving from the Chinese mainland into Southeast Asia remained healthy, while inbound traffic to the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong also held up. Semiconductor and pharmaceutical shipments supported specialist products, and time-definite inventory replenishment continued to generate demand into Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, and the Americas.
Those flows are developing alongside substantial disruption elsewhere. Middle East tensions have affected operating patterns and contributed to higher fuel costs, while passenger and freighter plans into parts of the region remain subject to review.
Cathay raised its ex-Hong Kong cargo fuel surcharge from 1 August after several reductions earlier in the year. The published bands for the first half of August are HK$2.8 per kg for short-haul destinations, HK$5.1 for medium-haul destinations, and HK$10.1 for long-haul markets including Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, and Africa.
Fuel is only one part of the network shift. India is becoming more important within Cathay’s cargo operation as manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, perishables, automotive supply, electronics, and e-commerce generate demand for connections between South Asia, Hong Kong, the Chinese mainland, and wider international markets.
The carrier is also gaining cargo capacity from passenger services. Lower-deck space can be valuable for higher-yield and time-sensitive freight, particularly on routes where dedicated freighter economics alone would not support frequent service.
That makes passenger-network decisions relevant to industrial shippers as well as travellers. A new or restored passenger route can change the amount of airfreight capacity available to move pharmaceuticals, automotive parts, electronic components, machinery, or perishables without a separate freighter being added.
For supply-chain planners, this is why airfreight capacity cannot be assessed simply by counting cargo aircraft. Belly capacity, route suspensions, fuel surcharges, passenger-network changes, and demand from specialist sectors all affect the amount of commercially useful space available on a particular lane.
The issue becomes more complicated while trade flows are being reshaped by customs policy and geopolitics. European import-rule changes are already weighing on low-value e-commerce traffic from China and Hong Kong, while disruption in the Gulf has made some routings less predictable and more expensive.
At the same time, urgent demand for semiconductors, server equipment, pharmaceuticals, and critical industrial components continues to support premium cargo. Those goods are less sensitive to relatively small freight-rate movements because the cost of delay can exceed the transport saving available through a slower mode.
This produces a mixed pricing environment. A carrier can report strong network-wide tonnage growth while individual lanes soften, and higher fuel costs can keep surcharges elevated even where spot demand weakens.
Shippers therefore face a market in which commodity, origin, destination, service requirement, and available network capacity matter more than a broad headline about global air-cargo growth.
Inventory strategy also affects demand. Businesses that have reduced safety stock depend more heavily on predictable replenishment, supporting time-definite services when a missed delivery threatens production or sales. Companies holding more stock closer to customers have greater scope to move cargo by ocean or rail instead.
Cathay’s 2026 growth has benefited from freight that is comparatively resistant to modal substitution. Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and urgent industrial components often carry sufficient value, time sensitivity, or handling requirements to justify air transport even when surcharges rise.
That is different from lower-value e-commerce, where a modest change in duty or fulfilment cost can alter the economics quickly and push sellers towards bulk importation or slower modes.
The second half will test how durable Cathay’s cargo mix proves to be. The carrier expects healthy flows to continue, but it remains exposed to fuel costs, Middle East operating constraints, and the effect of European customs changes on e-commerce demand.
Its first-half result is strong, but the more important operational question is how much of that growth can be sustained as the composition of Asian air cargo shifts between e-commerce, industrial production, specialist freight, and urgent inventory movement.
