IN Brief:
- RXO's truckload spot-rate index increased 32.4% year on year in Q2, its strongest inflationary reading since 2021.
- Contract rates rose 6% over the same period, leaving spot pricing substantially ahead as carrier capacity contracted.
- RXO says further volume growth could increase rate volatility because fewer carriers and drivers remain available to absorb demand.
RXO says US truckload capacity is tightening quickly enough to push spot prices sharply higher even though overall freight demand remains subdued, widening the gap between immediate-market pricing and longer-term contract rates.
RXO‘s proprietary Curve index showed second-quarter truckload spot rates, excluding fuel, up 32.4% year on year, compared with a 16.5% increase during the first quarter. That was the ninth consecutive inflationary reading and the strongest year-on-year result, as well as the largest sequential increase, since the second quarter of 2021.
Contract rates also increased, but much more slowly. RXO’s market data puts second-quarter contract-rate growth at 6% year on year, up from 2.4% in the first quarter. The divergence means freight placed outside established contractual arrangements is becoming materially more expensive while many negotiated rates still reflect a softer point in the cycle.
Through 21 August, the Curve was on course to finish the third quarter above its second-quarter level. RXO attributes the continued rise primarily to carrier attrition and regulatory enforcement that is reducing available driver and fleet capacity relative to demand, rather than to a sudden surge in the amount of freight being moved.
Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO, said the gap is already affecting shippers’ routing guides. “That trend is not only continuing but picking up steam as we head into peak season,” he said, after noting that spot pricing had consistently outpaced contract rates during the second quarter.
National volume data remains comparatively weak. US for-hire truck tonnage fell 1% in July, leaving the seasonally adjusted American Trucking Associations index at 113.5 and 0.5% below July 2025. The first seven months of 2026 were still 1.4% ahead year on year, but the monthly figures have not developed into a broad freight-demand recovery.
That combination creates a different procurement problem from a conventional demand boom. Rates can rise because fewer trucks are available for broadly similar cargo volumes, with the remaining carriers gaining more ability to reject low-paying or operationally unattractive loads. The market can therefore become tighter before headline tonnage starts to look particularly strong.
RXO’s own operating data shows that it gained truckload volume during the second quarter, with full truckload volume up 2% year on year. Spot freight accounted for 42% of its truckload brokerage volume, up sharply from the previous quarter, illustrating how more freight is moving through short-term pricing mechanisms as conditions tighten.
Carrier economics remain difficult despite rising rates. RXO says operating costs excluding fuel are nearly 30% above the previous market peak. Labour, insurance, equipment, maintenance, financing, and compliance costs can therefore absorb much of the rate increase, particularly for fleets carrying older contract prices while purchasing inputs at current levels.
The resulting capacity adjustment does not occur evenly. Carriers can leave specific regions, equipment types, or customer segments while national fleet totals change more slowly. A shipper may therefore encounter poor truck availability on one industrial or port lane while another part of the market still appears well supplied.
Routing guides are usually designed to absorb some of that variation by moving a rejected load from the primary contracted carrier to secondary and tertiary providers. The system becomes more expensive when each level is dealing with the same shortage. Once contracted options are exhausted, freight is pushed into the spot market, where the 32.4% annual increase indicates a much less forgiving pricing environment.
Peak-season demand will test how much spare capacity remains. Retail replenishment, agricultural movements, manufacturing output, construction activity, and import flows can all create regional increases without producing a dramatic national tonnage jump. If those volumes arrive in a market that has already lost marginal carriers and drivers, tender acceptance can deteriorate quickly.
Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said muted freight volumes are already producing significant rate volatility because capacity has fallen. He added that any sustained increase in shipment volumes would place further pressure on the diminished supply base.
The distinction between spot and contract pricing also affects the timing of procurement decisions. Annual bids and longer agreements reset only periodically, while spot prices respond immediately to available trucks and loads. A widening gap can encourage carriers to protect capacity for more profitable freight and force shippers to revisit contract pricing sooner than planned if routing-guide performance deteriorates.
Higher rates do not by themselves prove that the wider freight recession has ended. The July tonnage decline shows that demand remains uneven, while RXO’s analysis is explicitly centred on supply leaving the market. The present cycle is being tightened from the capacity side first.
That makes the next increase in freight volumes more consequential than it would have been when fleets carried more slack. The US trucking market does not need a dramatic demand surge to become difficult for buyers; it needs only enough additional cargo to meet a carrier base that has already shrunk. Spot pricing suggests that point is getting closer.
