IN Brief:
- Europe bound freighter capacity from Asia Pacific and the Middle East fell 14% during June.
- The reduction was equivalent to around 18 widebody freighter flights each day.
- Liège, Milan Malpensa, Schiphol, Budapest, and Milan Bergamo recorded substantial declines.
The European Commission’s new duty on low value imports has been followed by a 14% reduction in freighter capacity from Asia Pacific and the Middle East into Europe.
The June contraction was equivalent to approximately 18 fewer widebody freighter flights each day. Several major cargo gateways recorded sharper falls, including Liège at 16%, Milan Malpensa at 24%, Amsterdam Schiphol at 12%, and Budapest at 46%.
Milan Bergamo experienced a 40% reduction in ecommerce cargo movements, adding another indication that higher border costs are changing parcel volumes and the way airlines allocate aircraft across European routes.
The European Union introduced a temporary customs duty of €3 per item on consignments worth no more than €150 from 1 July 2026. It replaces the previous customs duty exemption and will remain until the EU Customs Data Hub becomes operational in July 2028.
Because the charge applies to each item rather than each parcel, its effect grows when a consignment contains several separate products. Sellers and platforms must decide whether to absorb the cost, raise prices, consolidate goods, change delivery offers, or move inventory into European fulfilment centres.
Airlines respond to the resulting cargo volumes. When parcel loads fall below the level required to support a dedicated freighter, capacity can be removed, combined with another route, or shifted to an airport where stronger demand or lower operating costs support better utilisation.
The adjustment reaches beyond the ecommerce companies paying the duty. Dedicated freighters often carry a mixture of parcels, electronics, fashion, machinery, components, pharmaceuticals, and urgent industrial cargo, with high volume ecommerce helping to support the frequency and economics of the route.
Reducing parcel demand can therefore remove capacity used by other shippers, even where their own cargo is unaffected by the customs change. Fewer departures may increase booking lead times, reduce routing options, or raise prices on lanes where the remaining aircraft are heavily utilised.
Inventory begins moving towards European fulfilment
A fixed duty per item changes the relative cost of direct consumer parcels and bulk imports. Bringing products into Europe in consolidated shipments and distributing them from a regional warehouse can reduce the duty paid across individual orders, although it introduces inventory, property, systems, and domestic fulfilment costs.
Platforms that previously relied on air transport from Asian fulfilment centres may need to decide which product lines justify European stock. Fast moving goods can support bulk replenishment, while slower ranges may remain on direct delivery or disappear from the market if the additional duty and transport cost make them uncompetitive.
Warnings from Flexport and BoxC had already indicated that the charge would alter air freight flows and parcel economics. The June capacity figures show that airlines and gateways began adjusting their networks rapidly rather than waiting for a longer trading period.
Air cargo prices remain sensitive to local capacity even where the wider market appears better supplied. Recent rate movements have remained elevated on several lanes despite broader capacity recovery, reflecting the uneven distribution of aircraft, demand, and disruption.
European airports will not experience the change equally. Customs processes, available warehouse space, labour, handling cost, airline relationships, road connections, and proximity to consumer markets can redirect remaining volumes between gateways.
Facilities developed around a sustained flow of low value parcels may need to attract other cargo or reduce operating capacity. Automated sorting systems and labour models designed for millions of small packages cannot always be redeployed efficiently to pallets, general freight, or specialist industrial consignments.
Domestic parcel networks may gain volume if more inventory is held within Europe, but they will also face changes in delivery profiles and returns. Consolidated importing places greater emphasis on warehouse location, stock accuracy, replenishment planning, and the ability to allocate products across several national markets.
The market will continue to adjust as sellers change prices and logistics models, yet warehouse leases, customs registrations, carrier contracts, and technology integrations cannot be altered instantly. Aircraft capacity can move more quickly, creating a period in which the transport network changes before the replacement fulfilment infrastructure is ready.
The first evidence suggests that the €3 duty is doing more than adding a line to customs declarations. It is influencing where goods are stored, how orders are consolidated, which airports receive freighters, and whether some direct ecommerce routes can support their previous level of capacity.
