Air cargo demand rises 6% in October

Global air cargo demand increased by 6% year on year during October 2026, continuing a period of growth without the sharp seasonal acceleration anticipated by some freight operators. Market figures published by Xeneta show that available capacity remained unchanged from October 2025, while average spot rates reached $3.11 per kilogram and the company’s dynamic load factor increased to 63%.

October marked the seventh consecutive month of annual demand growth following a 3% contraction in March, when the escalation of conflict in the Middle East disrupted international air transport. The subsequent recovery has produced consistent increases in freight volumes, although the latest figures show little evidence of a further acceleration ahead of the year-end shipping period.

Global spot rates increased by 29% compared with October 2025 and by 4% from September. Xeneta’s measure covers spot arrangements valid for up to one month, distinguishing it from prices agreed under longer-term capacity contracts.

The annual increase in spot rates widened for a second consecutive month, following a period of moderating growth between June and August. However, Xeneta has not identified the abrupt rise in capacity pressure, freight charter prices, or shipment volumes that would normally indicate a pronounced late-season peak.

Available capacity was flat year on year during October, compared with a 2% increase recorded in September. With cargo volumes continuing to grow faster than the space available to carry them, the dynamic load factor increased by two percentage points to 63%.

Xeneta’s dynamic load factor measures capacity utilisation using both the weight and volume of cargo transported relative to available capacity. This reflects the different loading constraints encountered by aircraft carrying dense industrial goods and those moving larger volumes of relatively lightweight products.

An aircraft can reach its permitted cargo weight before all available space has been occupied. Conversely, bulky shipments may consume the physical space available for freight without approaching the aircraft’s maximum weight allowance. Measuring both dimensions provides a broader assessment of capacity utilisation than relying on cargo weight alone.

The global load factor does not describe conditions on every individual trade route. Aircraft availability, passenger flight schedules, dedicated freighter operations, and the distribution of demand between destinations continue to create significant differences across the international market.

Spot rates increased month on month on all ten international trade corridors included in Xeneta’s October analysis. The largest rise occurred on the westbound transatlantic route, where prices from Europe to North America increased by 10% to $2.31 per kilogram.

Airlines were moving towards their winter schedules during the reporting period, changing the cargo capacity available on some routes. Passenger aircraft carry freight in their lower holds alongside dedicated cargo aircraft, so reductions in passenger services can affect available freight space even where the number of specialist freighter flights remains unchanged.

Transpacific demand continued to benefit from shipments associated with artificial intelligence infrastructure and other technology supply chains. Cargo chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to North America increased by approximately 15% year on year, while freighter capacity on the route expanded at a similar rate, according to figures referenced by Xeneta.

The growth reflects continued requirements for air transport within technology supply chains, although the published figures do not provide a detailed breakdown of servers, semiconductor equipment, electronic components, or other individual product categories.

Spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America increased by 3% from September to $6.34 per kilogram. Rates from Northeast Asia to North America rose by 4% to $6.21 per kilogram, maintaining relatively high pricing on both corridors.

Large or heavy equipment shipments can require suitable dedicated freighter capacity because of their dimensions, weight, or loading requirements. The availability of an appropriate aircraft can consequently be as important as the overall volume of freight capacity offered on a route.

Asia–Europe services presented a different demand picture. Spot rates from Northeast Asia to Europe increased by 4% month on month to $4.97 per kilogram, while Southeast Asia to Europe rates rose by 3% to $4.35 per kilogram. Those price movements occurred despite weaker demand in some e-commerce categories and reductions in direct freighter capacity.

Xeneta’s analysis of Chinese customs information, undertaken with Trade and Transport Group, found that China’s low-value and e-commerce exports to the European Union declined by 61% year on year during the third quarter. The analysis links the reduction partly to changes in European import charges affecting lower-value consignments.

The reported decline concerns a defined category of Chinese exports rather than all air freight moving between Asia and Europe. Industrial equipment, pharmaceutical products, machinery, and conventional wholesale shipments have separate demand patterns, even where they use the same international air transport services.

Chinese exports to Europe as a wider geographical region fell by 29% over the same period, with stronger shipments to Russia reducing the overall decline. The difference shows that the destination markets included in a trade measure can materially change the reported result.

Direct freighter capacity between Asia and Europe also declined during October, following earlier reductions affecting services routed through the Middle East. Freight prices are consequently being influenced by changes to both the volume of cargo seeking transport and the amount of suitable capacity available.

Maritime shipping presents another source of uncertainty for future air freight demand. Xeneta reported that container capacity crossing the Red Sea had recovered to approximately half its pre-crisis level during October, with more Asia–Europe vessel services returning to routes through the Suez Canal.

Some freight transferred to air transport during periods of unreliable ocean shipping may return to maritime services if vessel schedules improve consistently. That decision depends on the delivery requirements of individual products and the extent to which customers can rely on the revised container shipping arrangements.

Xeneta’s analysis of Eurostat data illustrates the relationship between maritime reliability and air freight demand. Air transport’s share of European import tonnage from Asia increased from 1.1% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024, when Red Sea disruption affected container shipping schedules. The share subsequently declined to 1.2% in 2025 as maritime reliability improved.

During the first eight months of 2026, the proportion increased slightly to 1.3%. The latest available Eurostat figures do not yet capture the autumn increase in container services using the Red Sea, so the effect on air freight’s share of international shipments remains to be established.

Xeneta expects some reliability-driven cargo to begin returning to ocean transport if container shipping performance demonstrates a sustained recovery, potentially from the second quarter of 2027. That timing remains a forecast rather than a confirmed change in transport bookings.

The company also expects global air freight rates to decline overall during 2027, although the outlook depends on capacity developments and the wider operating environment. Changes to transport availability, fuel costs, and regional disruptions could alter the relationship between freight demand and pricing.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, described the current market as continuing its steady growth rather than entering an exceptional seasonal surge. “It’s strong, but it’s not a ‘peak’ season,” he said.

Freight operators negotiating longer-term agreements face uncertainty about capacity and pricing over the coming year. A fixed annual rate may offer budget certainty, but the terms must accommodate potential changes in the availability of aircraft and the operating conditions affecting individual trade corridors.

October’s figures confirm continued growth in demand alongside limited capacity expansion, with different pressures emerging across transpacific, transatlantic, and Asia–Europe services. Further monthly data will show whether the market finishes 2026 at a similar growth rate and how the evolving balance between air and ocean freight affects demand in early 2027.