Cargo theft losses rise despite fewer incidents

Reported supply chain crime incidents across the United States and Canada fell by 33% during the third quarter of 2026, even as the estimated financial losses associated with cargo theft increased. Figures released by Verisk CargoNet show that 547 incidents were recorded between July and September, while estimated losses rose to $230.1m.

The number of reported incidents was also 19% lower than during the second quarter. However, the financial loss estimate increased by 12% compared with the $205.1m recorded during the corresponding period in 2025, indicating that fewer reported incidents have not translated into lower aggregate losses.

High-value shipments contributed to the divergence. CargoNet recorded 19 thefts involving documented cargo values of at least $1m during the quarter, compared with nine in the same period last year. Electronics and materials associated with data centre infrastructure featured among the valuable commodities attracting criminal attention.

The increase in high-value incidents is relevant to freight movements involving specialised equipment and industrial technology. Shipments may contain substantial value within a relatively small number of pallets or transport units, while replacement goods may need to be sourced through established manufacturing and distribution arrangements.

The reported value of stolen freight is distinct from the wider cost of responding to an incident. A cargo owner may also need to arrange replacement stock, investigate the loss, adjust deliveries, or organise additional transport. Those consequences depend on the shipment and the contracts governing its movement and are not necessarily included in CargoNet’s estimated financial losses.

Verisk’s longer reporting period shows the same divergence between the number of incidents and their financial impact. Through the first nine months of 2026, estimated losses reached $718.9m, an increase of 39% year on year. Reported incidents declined by 25%, from 2,755 to 2,072.

Among incidents for which a commodity value was documented, the average increased from $261,115 to $448,456, a rise of approximately 72%. This measure is calculated from thefts with recorded valuations and should not be treated as the average loss across every supply chain crime report.

Differences in the availability of valuation information can affect that calculation, while a relatively small number of expensive losses can contribute substantially to the financial total. The figures nevertheless confirm that the overall value of reported losses increased during a period when fewer incidents were recorded.

Deception-based theft remained a persistent feature of the quarterly results. CargoNet recorded 138 fictitious pickups, compared with 147 in the corresponding period of 2025. Their number declined by approximately 6%, substantially less than the 33% reduction across all reported supply chain crime incidents.

Fictitious pickups consequently represented around 25% of incidents during the third quarter, compared with 18% a year earlier. The increase in their share reflects the slower decline in these incidents relative to other reported categories, rather than an increase in their absolute number.

A fictitious pickup generally involves deception that enables an unauthorised party to obtain control of a shipment. The process can involve misrepresenting the identity of a carrier or manipulating information used to authorise collection, allowing freight to be released to a party that should not have received it.

Freight collection requires coordination between the cargo owner, warehouse or shipping facility, carrier, and receiving party. Transport instructions must establish which organisation is authorised to collect the goods and where they should be delivered. Changes to those arrangements can be legitimate, but they also create opportunities for fraudulent instructions when the identity of the requesting party is not reliably established.

CargoNet has previously identified schemes involving compromised business email accounts, internet-based telephone services, and transport industry applications. These can be used to impersonate participants in the transport process, obtain shipment information, or influence delivery instructions.

The methods combine digital access or communications deception with the physical collection and movement of freight. A shipment may be diverted without the use of force where fraudulent information persuades a legitimate facility to release cargo to an unauthorised collector.

Shipment visibility and authorisation are therefore related but distinct functions. Tracking information can establish where a load is reported to be moving, while identity and collection controls determine whether the person or organisation receiving it is entitled to take possession. One does not automatically establish the other.

Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk CargoNet, said the latest results require attention to the financial consequences of theft as well as incident frequency. “Understanding cargo theft requires looking beyond incident counts,” he said.

Food and beverage remained the most frequently reported commodity category, with 94 incidents during the quarter. That was substantially below the 178 recorded during the same period last year, although food distribution continued to account for more incidents than any other individual commodity group in the analysis.

Metals were another significant category, with 63 incidents compared with 68 a year earlier. Copper accounted for 34 of the quarterly metals incidents, demonstrating continued criminal interest in material that can be moved through industrial supply chains and sold or transferred outside its intended distribution route.

Electronics thefts declined from 69 to 46 reported incidents. The category included computers and accessories, while the wider high-value theft findings identified equipment and materials associated with data centre infrastructure. The decrease in the number of electronics incidents does not establish a corresponding reduction in the value of equipment stolen.

The different movements across commodities indicate that total incident counts provide an incomplete picture of exposure for individual product categories. The types of freight carried, their concentration of value, and the arrangements through which they are stored and transported influence the consequences of theft.

Geographical reporting also showed substantial concentrations. California recorded 182 incidents, down from 261 a year earlier. New Jersey recorded 46, Texas 43, and Illinois 40. Together, the four states accounted for approximately 57% of the quarterly incidents recorded by CargoNet.

Within those states, the analysis identified activity in Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties in California, together with Harris County in Texas and Cook County in Illinois. These locations are associated with substantial freight and distribution activity, although the incident figures alone do not establish their relative theft risk per shipment.

Comparing risk between freight markets requires information about the volume of cargo handled and the number of transport movements taking place. A location with substantial freight activity may generate more reported incidents in absolute terms without necessarily having a higher rate of theft than a smaller market.

The report also depends on incidents being identified and reported. CargoNet has collected information about supply chain crime since 2010, using reported cases across the US and Canada to identify developments in commodity targeting, theft methods, and geographical distribution.

Historical comparisons are filtered using equivalent reporting cut-off dates. The third-quarter 2026 figures incorporate reports received through 23 October, while previous periods are compared on a corresponding basis. Late reports can change the figures subsequently published for earlier quarters.

That methodology is important when assessing the reported reduction in incidents. The dataset represents recorded cases available to CargoNet rather than an exhaustive count of every theft or attempted diversion. Its financial estimates also depend on the information available for individual losses.

Seasonal changes may affect the next reporting period. CargoNet has previously observed increased theft activity during the fourth quarter and into the new year, when extended facility closures and changes in staffing can affect freight operations. The organisation has not established that a comparable increase will occur during the remainder of 2026.

The next quarterly figures will indicate whether the fall in reported incidents continues and whether high-value thefts remain responsible for increasing financial losses. For July to September, CargoNet recorded a substantial decline in crime reports alongside higher aggregate losses, with fictitious pickups representing a larger share of the incidents documented.