IN Brief:
- DHL now expects full-year group EBIT above €7bn, compared with its previous forecast above €6.5bn.
- Preliminary third-quarter revenue reached approximately €22.6bn and EBIT about €1.71bn.
- The group raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to approximately €3.6bn, from its previous €3bn–€3.3bn range.
DHL Group has raised its 2026 profit and capital expenditure guidance following preliminary third-quarter results and expectations of a strong final-quarter trading peak. Reported group earnings before interest and tax are now expected to exceed €7 billion, against the previous forecast of more than €6.5 billion. The 16 October disclosure identifies Express as the main contributor to the recent earnings improvement; the full quarterly report is due on 5 November.
The company has raised the combined earnings expectation for its DHL divisions to more than €6.4 billion from more than €5.9 billion, while leaving guidance for Post & Parcel Germany above €900 million and group functions at approximately a €400 million loss. Full-year free cash flow before mergers and acquisitions is now expected to exceed €3.2 billion, against an earlier forecast of around €3 billion. These are management forecasts for the year, not audited final results.
Preliminary group revenue for the third quarter reached around €22.6 billion, an increase of more than 12% compared with the same period of 2025. Reported EBIT was approximately €1.71 billion, up from €1.477 billion, representing growth of about 16%. DHL expects to publish its full third-quarter report on 5 November, when divisional performance and financial detail can be reviewed against these early figures.
Express was the largest contributor to the quarterly earnings improvement, with EBIT of approximately €1.035 billion against €692 million in the previous year. The earlier figure included €54 million of negative non-recurring effects. DHL attributed the current performance to measures affecting yield and costs, operating leverage from higher shipment weight, and approximately €100 million of limited support arising from airfreight capacity constraints. That latter benefit should not be treated as a permanent increase in physical network capacity.
Airfreight capacity constraints contributed approximately €100 million to the Express division’s third-quarter earnings, according to DHL. Scarce lift can strengthen yields on some consignments even while customers face fewer routing or departure options. The gain therefore reflects a market and pricing effect, not the commissioning of additional aircraft capacity or evidence of improved transit times. DHL has not attributed a corresponding network-wide service improvement to the constrained market.
DHL Global Forwarding generated third-quarter EBIT of about €260 million, up from €195 million a year earlier; the comparison period included €14 million in change-related costs. DHL Supply Chain recorded approximately €300 million, compared with €278 million in the prior-year quarter, which included €7 million of negative non-recurring items. These are distinct operating divisions: forwarding arranges international freight capacity, whereas Supply Chain primarily provides warehousing, fulfilment and other contract logistics services.
Within DHL eCommerce, EBIT was approximately €50 million versus €176 million in the prior-year quarter, but the 2025 figure included €123 million of positive non-recurring effects. Post & Parcel Germany recorded about €150 million compared with €218 million. Differences between recurring operating profit and one-off accounting effects limit how much quarterly comparisons reveal about underlying freight throughput. Detailed shipment data, margins and divisional commentary are expected with the full results.
Owned-asset capital expenditure guidance has risen to approximately €3.6 billion from the previous €3 billion–€3.3 billion range. DHL reported about €900 million of capex during the third quarter and around €2.2 billion for the first nine months, roughly €500 million more than a year earlier. The group has not divided the new full-year budget into identified warehouse expansions, aircraft orders, automation projects or regional allocations, so the increase remains a spending forecast rather than a list of completed investments.
Free cash flow excluding net mergers and acquisitions was approximately €900 million in the third quarter. DHL says the figure included around €255 million of net outflows associated with IEEPA measures and would otherwise have been higher; it also reported working-capital build-up associated with growth. Cash flows and owned-asset expenditure describe financing capacity and investment activity, but do not establish how many new distribution facilities, delivery routes or handling systems have reached operational service.
DHL is scheduled to publish its complete third-quarter financial results on 5 November and reconsider its medium-term guidance in March 2027. Those updates should provide greater detail about divisional performance and the scope of future investment. For now, the confirmed change is a higher full-year EBIT forecast, stronger expected free cash flow and an increased capex budget, all based on the company’s preliminary trading assessment.
