IN Brief:
- Global air cargo demand rose 4.0% year-on-year in April, while capacity fell 0.4%.
- Asia-Pacific carriers recorded the strongest regional demand growth, supported by Asia-linked trade flows.
- Middle East disruption, fuel costs, and freighter capacity are reshaping short-term cargo routing decisions.
IATA has reported a 4.0% year-on-year increase in global air cargo demand for April 2026, with Asia-linked trade flows helping the market return to growth despite disruption across major Middle East corridors.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, rose 4.0% compared with April 2025, while capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, fell 0.4%. The imbalance underlines the continuing dependence on dedicated freighters and flexible routings as passenger bellyhold capacity remains uneven across disrupted regions.
Asia-Pacific airlines recorded the strongest regional performance, with demand up 10.5% year-on-year and capacity increasing 5.3%. European carriers reported 6.0% demand growth, while North American carriers rose 5.0%. The Middle East remained under pressure, with demand down 18.2% and capacity down 22.9% as conflict and hub disruption continued to affect Gulf-linked cargo flows.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said: “Air cargo demand grew 4% year-on-year in April, driven by strong Asia-linked trade flows. But this positive news masks a more complex operating environment. Severe disruption at major Gulf hubs due to the war in the Middle East continued to reshape trade routes and constrain capacity on key corridors. With dedicated freighters carrying much of the growth, air cargo is once again keeping supply chains moving amid trade disruptions.”
The strongest trade lane growth came from Africa-Asia, followed by Asia-Europe, with intra-Asia also holding up on regional trade. That pattern gives forwarders and shippers a sharper view of where capacity pressure is likely to sit through the next planning cycle, particularly on routes serving electronics, healthcare, automotive components, high-value industrial goods, perishables, and e-commerce parcels.
At UK gateways, additional China-facing capacity is already becoming more significant. Glasgow Prestwick Airport’s new Shanghai cargo route shows how regional airports are trying to capture cargo flows that need direct access, available slots, and less congested handling environments.
The operating backdrop remains difficult. Global trade contracted by 2.1% month-on-month in March after four consecutive months of growth, while jet fuel prices rose sharply in April. Higher energy costs feed directly into air freight economics at a point when shippers are already balancing cost, speed, and resilience.
Manufacturing conditions were more supportive. The global Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 53.4 in April, while new export orders reached 50.2. Both readings remained above the 50-point expansion threshold, giving air cargo a demand base beyond emergency rerouting alone.
For logistics teams, the figures point to a market where demand is available but network design is becoming more complex. The recovery is not evenly distributed; it is concentrated around carriers and lanes that can absorb disruption, reroute quickly, and secure enough freighter or bellyhold capacity to protect time-critical flows.
The April data also sharpens the contrast between trade momentum and operational fragility. Air cargo remains the mode that absorbs disruption when ocean and road routes become unreliable, but the cost of that flexibility is rising. Route availability, fuel exposure, hub access, customs performance, and carrier resilience now sit much closer to core procurement decisions.
Asia-led growth may continue to support volumes, but constrained Gulf capacity and higher operating costs will keep freight buying selective. Air freight is likely to remain reserved for margin-critical, shelf-life-sensitive, or production-critical cargo, with alternative modes held under review before disruption forces the decision.
