IN Brief:
- Cushman & Wakefield expects tenant-favourable logistics markets to fall from 52% in 2026 to 33% by 2029.
- Global logistics rents are 36% higher than in 2020.
- Energy costs, automation readiness, and resilience are becoming core property decisions.
Cushman & Wakefield expects the balance of power in global logistics real estate to move back towards landlords as vacancy tightens, supply remains constrained, and occupiers compete for higher-quality assets.
The company’s Waypoint 2026 analysis of 135 global logistics markets indicates that tenant-favourable conditions will fall from 52% of markets in 2026 to 33% by 2029. Over the same period, landlord-favourable markets are expected to rise from 26% to 39%.
Global logistics rents are already 36% higher than in 2020, despite rent growth moderating during 2025. Cushman & Wakefield expects 54% of markets globally to record rental growth over the next three years, with occupiers under pressure to make earlier decisions on critical locations.
Sally Bruer, report author at Cushman & Wakefield, said: “The next phase of the logistics cycle will be defined by preparedness. Businesses that embed resilience into their real estate strategies, through smarter use of technology, automation and energy-secure assets, will be far better placed to navigate disruption and capture long-term growth.”
The analysis points to different pressures across regions. In the Americas, tenant-favourable conditions have fallen sharply from 72% of markets a year ago to 53% today. By 2029, landlord-favourable markets in the region are expected to reach 46%, making it the most pronounced regional shift in the report.
In APAC, conditions remain more divergent. Australia, Japan, and Singapore are seeing stronger competition for space because of supply constraints, while parts of India and mainland China remain more tenant-friendly due to higher levels of new supply. In EMEA, tenant-favourable markets are expected to fall from 54% to 39% by 2029, with tightening vacancy affecting core markets including the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands.
For occupiers, the property decision is becoming more operational. A warehouse is no longer judged only by rent, location, yard space, clear height, and dock doors. Automation readiness, power availability, energy cost exposure, labour access, resilience, building quality, and sustainability performance are now central to total logistics cost.
Live projects already show the direction of travel. Aldi’s Bardon distribution centre combines large-scale grocery capacity with automation, temperature-controlled chambers, and solar generation, while FedEx’s Duiven road hub expansion adds dock and palletised freight capacity to a strategic European network node.
Those examples show why the market is not simply moving back to landlords because of supply numbers. The sharper shift is towards a smaller pool of buildings capable of supporting modern logistics operations. Occupiers need facilities that can handle higher power demand, automated systems, transport intensity, environmental targets, and more volatile demand patterns.
Energy is becoming one of the clearest differentiators. In countries including Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK, elevated electricity prices are pushing occupiers towards more efficient buildings, sites with renewable energy access, and locations with reliable grid infrastructure. That trend will become more important as warehouses add automation, refrigeration, EV charging, and data-heavy systems.
For retailers, manufacturers, 3PLs, and food distributors, waiting for softer market conditions may carry more risk than committing early to suitable space. If the best locations tighten first, occupiers may find themselves choosing between higher rent, operational compromise, or network redesign.
The next property cycle is therefore likely to reward companies that treat logistics real estate as a strategic operating asset rather than a procurement line. Rent will still matter, but the cheaper building may not be the lower-cost building once energy, labour, automation, resilience, and service performance are included.
